***Note: All Times are in New York/Eastern Time
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***Over the Weekend***
Japans current easing policy might not be enough
In his Parliamentary confirmation hearing the BoJ Gov nominee Kuroda stated that the size and type of current asset purchases are not enough to meet 2% target. He recommends buying more and longer-dated JGBs as the most natural easing policy. On Monday, Japan released data stating that its monetary base grew 15.0% y/y in Feb, a one year high for the monthly reading.
China is stepping up its property market curbs to avoid real estate bubbles
On Friday the China State Council reported they will continue to implement home price controls as property price increase expectations have gotten stronger. They plan to increase the down payment amount need for a second home, to raise interest rates on mortgages in certain cities, and to strictly enforce a 20% tax on home sale profits in an effort to slow price appreciation.
Feds Bernanke reiterates easy monetary policy not ending any time soon
In a speech give late Friday night, Fed Chairman Bernanke said ending easy monetary policy too soon would be costly to economy and may undermine financial stability. He believes a premature tightening may lead to higher long-term rates for longer period and that major industrial economies are still in recovery phase. Bernanke said the Fed may use balance sheet adjustments to mitigate sharp increase in rates.
Struggling European countries are asking for more time
Over the weekend the financial press reported Greece started negotiations with the Troika for improved loan terms as inspectors returned to Athens for a week-long review of progress toward implementing austerity steps. Negotiations this time may be more favorable for Greece, as the finance ministry has been able to keep the budget in-line with targets and the privatization program remains on track.
In addition to the Greek request, Eurozone fin ministers will meet in Brussels on Monday to discuss Portugals request for more time in repaying its loans.
US sequester goes into effect over weekend; No immediate solution seen
US House speaker Boehner said he held talks with Pres Obama regarding sequester spending this weekend, but no progress was made to shut off the budget cuts. Pres Obamas economists see the sequester affecting GDP by -0.5% and jobs by -750K people, while other press reports over the weekend see a more muted reaction of -0.4% for GDP and -300K for jobs.
Mon, March 4th
Americas: Mexico Feb IMEF Manufacturing Index; IMEF Non-Manufacturing Index
Notable US Earnings: BYD, RIG, TECD, YGE
Asia: Australia Jan Building Approvals
Notable Asia Earnings: HSBC, 5.HK
Europe: UK Feb PMI Construction, EU Jan Euro-Zone PPI
Notable EU Earnings: Capital and Regional, Bank of Ireland, Kuehn % Nahel
Tues, March 5th
Americas: US Feb ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite
Notable US Earnings: PAY
Asia: Australia Jan Retail Sales, Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision
Notable Asia Earnings: none seen
Europe: UK Feb PMI Services, EU Jan Euro-Zone Retail Sales
Notable EU Earnings: Severstal, Deutsche Post, Michael Page, RWE, Xstrata, ASM International, Sberbank
Wed, March 6th
Americas: US Feb ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Canada BOC Interest Rate Decision, Canada Feb Ivey Purchasing Managers Index, Brazil Central Bank SELIC Target
Notable US Earnings: SEO, BF.B, HOV, ALJ, PETM
Asia: Australia Q4 Gross Domestic Product
Notable Asia Earnings: none seen
Europe: EU Q4 Preliminary Euro-Zone GDP, UK BOE Governor King and Bailey Speak in Parliament
Notable EU Earnings: Henkel, Axel Springer
Thurs, March 7th
Americas: US Continuing/Initial Jobless Claims, Canada Jan Building Permits, Canada Jan International Merchandise Trade, US Jan Trade Balance, US Bank Stress Test Results, US Monthly Same Stores Sales
Notable US Earnings: CIEN, CNQ, DANG, KR, SFD
Asia: Australia Jan Trade Balance
Notable Asia Earnings: Prada, 1913.HK
Europe: Swiss Feb Foreign Currency Reserves, UK BOE Announces Interest Rates; BOE Asset Purchase Target, EU ECB Announces Interest Rates; ECB Deposit Facility Rate, ECB’s Draghi Holds Press Conference After Rate Decision
Notable EU Earnings: Carrefour, Continental, Hannover Re, Linde, Merck KGaA, Schroders
Fri, March 8th
Americas: US Feb Change in Household Employment; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls; Change in Non-Farm Payrolls; Change in Private Payrolls, Canada Feb Full Time Employment Change; Part Time Employment Change; Net Change in Employment, Canada Feb Unemployment Rate, US Feb Unemployment Rate
Notable US Earnings: ANN, FL
Asia: Japan Jan Current Account Balance; Current Account Total; Adjusted Current Account Total, Japan Q4 Final GDP Annualized; GDP Deflator; Gross Domestic Product; Nominal GDP, China Feb Trade Balance (USD); Exports; Imports; Sat in Asia: China Feb Consumer Price Index
Notable Asia Earnings: none seen
Europe: Swiss Feb CPI; CPI EU Harmonized
Notable EU Earnings: Banca Generali
– (EU) ECB’s Coeure: Prolonged wastefulness can debase the euro
-(EU) ESM chief Regling: Reservations in some European states may eventually stop the use of ESM for bank recapitalization
– (EU) UniCredit: ECB expected to leave policy stance unchanged in its monthly meeting on Thursday – press
– LCH.Clearnet lowers margins in trading of some French and Spanish bonds
– (EU) Moody’s: Euro area sovereign debt markets vulnerable to further shocks to investor confidence
– (FR) France Fin Min Moscovici: Confident France can reach deficit below 3% of GDP in 2014; Will not implement more austerity this year – financial press
– (GR) Greece has started negotiations with troika this weekend as inspectors return to Athens for a week-long review of progress toward implementing austerity steps – financial press
– (IT) President Napolitano said to be mulling the creation of a second technocrat government, in which Bank of Italy Gov Visco could be named as PM – Telegraph’s Ambrose Evans-Pritchard; Says, it is unclear if the PD party will support any technocrat government.
– (IT) Italy 5 star party leader Grillo: Italy may have to abandon the euro and return to the lire if conditions do not change; Need to renegotiate Italy’s debt – German press
– (IT) Italy’s Berlusconi (PDL): Need to change electoral law and set new elections as soon as possible; Italy’s stability is at risk – financial press
– (IT) JPMorgan: Sees 70% chance of centre-left/centre-right coalition in Italy but tail risks still justify higher risk premium in Italy’s govt debt
– (IT) Fitch comments on Italy; political instability is a credit negative
– (PT) Eurozone fin mins to meet in Brussels on Monday to discuss Portugal request for more time in repaying its loans – financial press
– (PT) Hundreds of thousands of protesters marched across several cities in Portugal in opposition to govt austerity measures – financial press
– (ES) Moody’s: Spain budget deficit to narrow this year but by lower amount than expected by Govt; Budget data points to an improved fiscal position.
– (UK) UK FEB LLOYDS BUSINESS BAROMETER: 13 V 15 PRIOR (6-month low)
– (UK) UK FEB HOMETRACK HOUSING SURVEY M/M: 0.1% V 0.0% PRIOR (9-month high); Y/Y: -0.1% V -0.3% PRIOR (smallest decline since Aug 2010)
– (UK) Goldman Sachs’ Kevin Daly said the firm’s central position is for the BoE to not vote on Thursday for additional quantitative easing (QE) – London Telegraph; Expects the central bank to ease further by using new stimulus measures in the months ahead.
– (US) House speaker Boehner: Held talks with Pres Obama regarding sequester spending this weekend; Made no progress to shut off the budget cuts
-(US) Pres Obama reiterates call on Congress to replace sequester cuts with a “balanced approach – US press citing weekly address
-(US) S&P comments on sequestration; expecting limited impact
– (US) Fed chairman Bernanke: Ending easy monetary policy too soon would be costly to economy and may undermine financial stability – update as of Mar 1st; Premature tightening may lead to higher long-term rates for longer period; Long-term rates may rise to 3% by end of 2014 and 4-5% by 2017 as economy improves.
– (US) NABE Survey: Most support ending QE3 in 2013; slight majority see monetary policy at about right – financial press
– (US) Pres Obama to nominate Walmart Foundation head Sylvia Mathews Burwell as his next budget chief to help with negotiations in the sequester debate with the GOP – US press
– (US) FEB ISM MANUFACTURING: 54.2 V 52.5E (highest since June 2011); PRICES PAID: 61.5 V 57.0E (highest since Feb 2012)
– (CN) China PBoC gauges demand for 7- and 14-day reverse repos and 28-day repos – financial press
– (CN) PBoC adviser Song Guoqing: Pressure on PBoC to tighten policy and controls is abating; Inflation to be “relatively low” in March because of slowing increase in food price – financial press
– (CN) China PBoC Dep Gov Yi Gang: China is “fully prepared” for currency war but would rather abide by G20 conventions – Chinese press; Sees 2013 CPI at about 3% in 2013, v 2.6% y/y.
– (CN) China banks in Jan purchased $181.8B, sold $89.2B in fx from clients – financial press
– (CN) CHINA FEB NON-MANUFACTURING PMI: 54.5 V 56.2 PRIOR (5-month low; 12TH STRAIGHT MONTH OF EXPANSION)
– (JP) BoJ Gov nominee Kuroda: Size and type of current asset purchases not enough to meet 2% target; Most natural easing is to buy more and longer-dated JGBs – parliamentary confirmation hearing; Not much room to cut rates; Wider variety of asset purchases should be considered; Would be difficult for BOJ to buy foreign bonds in huge amounts.
– (JP) JAPAN FEB MONETARY BASE Y/Y: 15.0% V 10.9% PRIOR (1-yr high)
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